consider the future

As one year is on the way out, and another is on the way in, it is worthwhile to pause a moment and consider the future.

One thought that lurks like an elephant in the room, is the impact of globalisation, and world markets, on our lives. Britain is no longer the manufacturer of assorted sundries for all the world. We are no longer the pre-eminent power that we once were.

And yet, too often we think that we exist cosily within a welfare state that will protect and nurture us all, regardless.

But exactly what competitive advantage does Britain have as a country. It is difficult to argue that we are smarter, or work harder, equally although some in Britain own capital, or land, most of us do not, in any substantial way. In fact, Britain is fast becoming a nation of debtors. Dependent on favourable interest rates, merely to stay afloat.

We no longer have the easy benefit of living in a pre-eminent country. Mere location does not carry the benefits that it once did. The fact that we live in Britain does not make us ready workers in factories. Likewise services are increasingly capable of being outsourced, just as manufacturing has been.

At the moment we are all familiar with the outsourcing of call centres, but our lives are increasingly digital. This Christmas the shops seem unusually quiet, as shopping increasingly shifts online. So retail need no longer be on our high street, if we simply order on line, who is employed, where. Orders could be managed and sent automatically, vast sheds could provide goods for delivery. Goods that are increasingly made overseas.

So JK Rowling writes a book, it is published by a UK company, then printed overseas, comes over by the container load, and is distributed by Amazon. Where exactly is the role for the British worker in this scenario. Likewise the entire country cannot make a living providing services to each other. We need to provide exportable goods and services, to balance those we import. But increasingly the exportable goods and services have very little staff component. The staff component is highly skilled/valued, a superstar component. JK Rowling, James Dyson, Whisky brands, top universities, there is a role, but increasingly it is a role for the rich few not the poor many.

And the few are mobile, there is not much that they need to stay for. Society is increasingly becoming divided between the prosperous few, and the unskilled many. The welfare society relied on an implicit contract between the generations, and the classes, that you put in, and you took out, at times you put in, at times you took out. But increasingly there will be people who have virtually opted out of the welfare society, they pay for their children's schooling and university, they never claim benefits, barely access the NHS, would never be eligible for benefits anyway. If these people are superstars, then the world is their market. They need only stay here while the quality of life suits them. Overtax, or under-provide and they are free spirits to move on, as they will. They feel no duty to provide endlessly for a feckless underclass, they spend their lives doing their best to avoid.


Having said all this, I do not think that it is a vision that we need to fall victim to. A superstar economy is not an economy that I want to live in, nose pressed enviously against a window, watching the conspicuous consumption. By and large, the high end, high value work is not individual work. It derives from a group. You might talk about superstar academics, but really academics exist in a campus. I've blogged before on how big companies like Google, and Apple are starting to talk about having a campus. Why not government departments, or R&D facilities. Who does not enjoy spending time at a campus. Fresh young people carrying books, and arguing about things that they believe in. Great people become great, by surrounding themselves with other great people.

If we want to have a superstar economy, then we need to think in terms of campuses. Creating networks of possibility, easy soft quick links between like minds, fast track ideas, and approaches. Hothousing ideas to see what works, testing different models.

In terms of government, a devolved model offers tremendous opportunities, for small agile nations to try out ideas, that would be incapable of implementation in a slower larger country.

All this thinking is of little benefit, if it cannot inform how we out to adapt to thrive, you cannot merely adapt to survive, that is a charter for extinction. You need to adapt to thrive.

There are probably no certainties, but certain things are doubtless safe bets;

networking - you should build and build your networks, your capacity to create, and draw on networks.

information technology - you should be a relentless and determined user of information technology to deliver your goals, though not necessarily as an end in itself.

acceptability - you should be capable of interacting productively with as wide a population as possible. This might mean languages, or simply a welcoming smile, or helpful demeanour. The future belongs to those who can move about easily.

curiosity - you should always be curious, always asking and trying. The curious mind is a nimble mind.

time poor - the libraries of tomorrow are endless, not mere shelves, nor libraries, but warehouses recreating themselves endlessly. We need to become adept at skimming and dipping. Comfortable in our relative ignorance.

balancing between an attention to detail, and being easily bored - willing to put the time into figuring out something, but quick to move onto more interesting pastures.


And I suppose on a personal basis, it is always useful to be fit, healthy, and have some money behind you. If I can manage these things myself, if we can manage these things, if they can manage these things ...


Finally in personal terms there is an interdependence between having qualifications, experience and abilities. You need to balance these, as on their own, each has its limitations, but together they reinforce and support each other. The qualifications reinforce the skills, but it takes experience to actually demonstrate them. Any personal development needs to take account of all three, if it is to succeed.

Addenda - I've just read the attached article, and much of it chimes with what I have said above, however, even beyond this, it is very thoughtful and worthwhile
http://www.scotlandsfuturesforum.org/The%20Goodison%20Group%20in%20Scotland/GGIS%20Final%20Report%202007.pdf